The change of wind power in the past decade and the impact of ideas
"people tend to overestimate the change of one year and underestimate the change of ten years" has become a widely recognized "stylized fact" about the development of things. It is also appropriate to use this sentence to describe the wind power industry and even the whole renewable energy industry. This is prominently reflected in the development of emerging energy and industries such as wind power in the past 10 years, as well as its impact on system, concept and culture
there is no doubt that wind power has achieved great success in the past 10 years. However, at present, we should pay attention to the use of electronic universal experimental machines. There are still many challenges in the standard wind power industry, such as the difficult abandonment of wind power and power limitation, the huge gap of subsidies, the green certificate of a drop in the bucket, the controversial parity and so on. How to deal with these challenges is the key to the development of wind power industry in the next decade
standing at the key intersection of the changing situation of the wind power industry, we look back on the past and look forward to the future for a period of ten years
in mid October 2017, the international wind energy conference and Exhibition (cwp2017) was held in Beijing, which is the tenth year of this grand event. The author has the honor to participate in the main forums and exhibitions, and is deeply excited that in the past 10 years, China's wind power industry has developed from scratch, from small to large, from weak to strong, and become a major stakeholder and new force in the energy industry
in the first half of this year, drawworld center cooperated with several domestic authoritative research and consulting machines, and Jinan new era Gold Testing Instrument Co., Ltd. specialized in providing: pull institutions. With the support of international Greenpeace organization, it released the synergy benefits of China's wind power photovoltaic power generation, and evaluated the comprehensive benefits of China's wind power generation in terms of energy, environment, economy, society and industrial organization. On this basis, this paper will focus on the impact and influence of the system and concept of wind power photovoltaic
as the starting point of this article, the author will review the views and discussions on the same and similar structures in history based on several observations and feelings of attending this year's wind energy conference
we will see that some problems are still in the old system and there are large path dependencies; Some have undergone great changes, forming new paradigms and narratives; Some "good" and "bad" are obvious, while others still need to be explored and discussed. This is due to the development of a more open and competition based energy industry environment and the improvement of the government regulation system for the purpose of making up for "market failure"
development idea of wind power - from centralized extreme to decentralized evolution
analyzing the three five-year renewable energy plans of the eleventh five year plan, the Twelfth Five Year Plan and the thirteenth five year plan, we can find interesting changes. The eleventh five year plan proposes: "focus on building 30 large-scale wind farms with more than 100000 kW and 5 million kW wind power bases. Give full play to the advantages of wind energy resources in the" Three North "(northeast, North and northwest) to build large and super large wind farms"; The 12th Five Year Plan is changed to "pay equal attention to centralization and decentralization, orderly promote the construction of large-scale wind power bases, and encourage decentralized wind power"; The 13th five year plan swapped the two and proposed to "accelerate the development of wind power in the Middle East and south, and orderly build triple large-scale wind power bases"
at the international wind energy conference and exhibition, the participants unanimously expressed their great expectations for renewable distributed development, and the reference to "energy base" almost disappeared. Liang Zhipeng, deputy director of the new energy department of the national energy administration, said: "we should vigorously promote the development of decentralized wind power. We all know that the development of wind power in Europe was first dominated by decentralized wind power. China has taken the lead in the development of centralized wind power. Now it is time for us to accelerate the development of decentralized wind power." The idea of decentralized development has gradually formed a consensus among a large number of wind power practitioners
it should be said that this is a huge conceptual change. The change of concept will obviously affect the form and evolution of the whole industry. Of course, this evolution is still incomplete. Completely abolishing the reference to "energy base" has become an urgent task in the next step
If before the emergence of renewable energy, but in China, the wide-ranging utilization has just begun, "large and beautiful" or "small and beautiful" is more an ideology. Major energy industry service providers are pursuing scale, scope and diversification as much as possible to achieve economies of scale of the overall operation; Then, after the emergence of renewable energy, due to the output characteristics and system influence of renewable energy, abandoning the new "stupid, stupid and thick" high-capacity base load units and transmission lines has become a necessary requirement for a flexible, economical and efficient system. The so-called "base load" of the system will become an outdated concept. Base load demand (that is, stable demand) always exists, but it often does not need to be met by base load power supply. The long-distance high-capacity power transmission is facing the problem of insufficient utilization, and the cost will rise sharply
at present, the coordination (handling balance deviation) and data management of power systems in all regions of the world are still centralized. The emergence of new IT technologies (such as blockchain) even makes it possible to decentralize these functions. In the future, the peer to peer system will become possible at all levels of the system (power generation, distribution, retail, etc.), and the system may become completely distributed
on the development potential and rhythm of renewable energy - it has been higher than expected
for how large-scale wind power installation will be realized in 2020, the medium and long term plan for renewable energy issued in 2007 says: "by 2010, the total installed capacity of wind power in China will reach 5 million kilowatts; by 2020, the total installed capacity of wind power in China will reach 30 million kilowatts."
by 2011 (when the wind power capacity was close to 50 million), the 12th Five Year Plan proposed that "it will reach 100 million in 2015 and 200 million in 2020". The 13th five year plan issued in 2016 is to "ensure that the installed capacity of wind power will reach more than 210 million kW in 2020"According to the latest statistics of the wind energy conference, the installed capacity of wind power in China has reached 169 million KW by the end of 2016. At present, the annual new construction indicators of wind power and photovoltaic power are more than 20 million kilowatts. Based on this calculation, by 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power will reach 280 million KW, and that of photovoltaic power will be close to 164 million KW, which is far higher than the goal set in the 13th five year plan
in such an industry with highly dispersed owners, the decision-making power of investment is often decentralized. Decision-making is the most appropriate. What is needed is to provide sufficient but not excessive incentives in time. From the perspective of limited subsidy resources, the way to control the total amount is often reasonable. What is also needed is that the process of selecting "owners" is more competitive (different from first come, first served, such as bidding determination) and open
this way of controlling the total amount will be different from the "demand" based on system balance constraints in the past planning ideas. If the scale of renewable energy needs to be limited, it is also the limit of subsidies, rather than the so-called "no shortage of electricity" limit in general. Keeping the market open and competitive to the greatest extent is the essence of effective market development
the appropriate scale of renewable energy lies in its optimal market share, which comes from environmental constraints; Instead of "sitting in rows and eating fruits", the system needs power balance. Repeatedly guessing how much electricity China needs in 2030 and 2050, and then how much renewable energy capacity it needs, is meaningless and impossible in public policy. It is best to evolve over time through decentralized decisions of different investors, rather than plan. The change in this concept is undoubtedly huge
about the competition of various power sources in the system - the traditional "coordination" paradigm still dominates
"the system should be sufficient but not wasted at all. Competition is a waste."—— This is the core idea of planned economy thinking. Therefore, in the traditional planning, "the maximum demand is 100, thermal power is 80 and hydropower is 20, which is just perfect!" Such a basic methodology is full of all kinds of planning, large and small. Although strictly speaking, the non simultaneity of hydropower and thermal power and the fluctuation of demand also mean that there must be mismatches in the system, or even insufficient matching in most of the time, so as to face excess competition in the case of total wastemeans that the utilization rate of some units is still greatly reduced compared with that of other units; b. Sometimes, the installed capacity must be significantly higher than the demand, and even the renewable installed capacity will exceed the total load. At this time, there must be a corresponding competition mechanism to determine the market share of excess units. After the emergence of renewable energy, competition is more inevitable due to its greater and more frequent fluctuations in demand compared with controllable power sources (wind power at the hour level, photovoltaic day and night, and shorter second and minute scales)
to a certain extent, as Qin Haiyan, Secretary General of the wind energy special committee, said at the wind energy conference, "with the development of renewable energy, the power system must be changed. In particular, the traditional base load thinking is wrong and a stumbling block to ideological development. 100% NEW energy can be realized in the future"
the eleventh five year plan mentions that "in areas with good wind energy resources, complete power access facilities and large demand for power load, the construction of megawatt wind power base shall be carried out"; The 12th Five Year Plan mentioned that "coordinate the distribution of wind energy resources, power transmission and market consumption, and establish a power dispatching and operation system suitable for the development of wind power"; The 13th five year plan mentioned that "strictly coordinate the development and construction with the market consumption, and orderly promote the construction of large-scale wind power bases on the premise that the consumption market and transmission conditions are guaranteed"
due to the inherent uncertainty of demand, the so-called guaranteed demand of consumption market can not be achieved in advance. The so-called "source coordination" is often a kind of "off topic" description (frame) of the problems faced. I don't know which is the target, which is the condition, and whether there is a competitive mechanism to deal with most coordination problems. When there is disharmony, why is there no price signal from the market. This way of thinking still has a large market in the field of energy
the role of electricity will undoubtedly become more and more important
the expanded scope of electricity connection is one of the main options to expand renewable energy consumption and improve system flexibility, which has been proved by many studies
in 2010, Shu Yinbiao, then deputy general manager of the State Power Corporation, said: "preliminary research shows that by 2020, if only considering the wind power consumption capacity in their respective provinces, the scale of wind power that can be developed in China will be only about 52 million KW; if the power interconnection across regions and provinces is adopted, the scale of wind power development in China can be nearly doubled to more than 100 million KW." At this time, it is still a paradigm to frame the scale of wind power with fixed power conditions, that is, "the power will receive up to 100 million kw of wind power in 2020"